Chase Elliott's NASCAR dominance continues—but Bubba Wallace is closing in faster than anyone expected. The reigning champion proved his consistency with a seventh-place finish at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) this past Sunday, but here's the kicker: he's now just two points shy of second-place Bubba Wallace in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series standings. And this is the part most fans overlook—Hendrick Motorsports isn’t just banking on Elliott to carry the team. Let’s unpack the drama unfolding in the early season.
Elliott’s steady performance at COTA—where he dodged chaos and capitalized on strategic pit calls—locked him into third place overall. But the real suspense lies in his rivalry with Wallace, who’s riding a wave of momentum after securing second in points. Meanwhile, Elliott’s Hendrick teammates William Byron (13th) and Kyle Larson (15th) are quietly flying under the radar—just barely above the Chase cutoff line. For context, the top 16 drivers after 26 regular-season races qualify for the playoffs, and both Byron and Larson are playing a high-stakes game of points chess to stay in contention.
Here’s where things get spicy: Larson’s sixth-place finish at COTA wasn’t just a fluke. It gave his No. 5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet team a much-needed confidence boost, especially with upcoming tracks favoring aggressive drafting strategies. But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room—Alex Bowman, currently languishing in 36th with 23 points, has been a playoff regular in recent years. Is this the year underdogs like Bowman stage a comeback, or will the current standings predict the final 16?
And now, the numbers that’ll make your head spin:
Top 16 Drivers After 3 of 26 Races
1. Tyler Reddick – 186 (unstoppable so far?)
2. Bubba Wallace – 116 (Elliott’s biggest threat?)
3. Chase Elliott – 114 (can he hold off the pressure?)
4. Ryan Blaney – 100 (quietly dangerous)
5. Shane van Gisbergen & Joey Logano – 90 (tied—what does this mean for playoff tiebreakers?)
7. Daniel Suarez – 87
8. AJ Allmendinger – 86
9. Michael McDowell – 83
10. Carson Hocevar – 82
11. Chris Buescher – 81
12. Brad Keselowski – 78
13. William Byron – 76
14. Zane Smith – 75
15. Kyle Larson – 73
16. Ryan Preece – 68
But wait—Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, and Ty Dillon are all tied at 65 points. In a sport where a single mechanical failure or crash can wipe out weeks of progress, could these drivers surge into the top 16 by midseason? Or is the current hierarchy set in stone?
Let’s talk strategy: With 23 races left, momentum shifts are inevitable. Will Elliott’s consistency trump Wallace’s late-race heroics? Can Larson and Byron avoid the midseason slump that’s derailed playoff hopefuls in the past? And here’s the controversial take: Is the points system rewarding consistency over risk-taking, or does it still favor drivers who can win big when it counts?
Drop your predictions in the comments: Who’s making the Chase, and who’s getting left in the dust? 🏁
